Expert Error: George W. Bush and the National Guard

Expert Error: George W. Bush and the National Guard

There is a truth regarding whether Bush did or didn’t shirk his duty. It is not merely a matter of opinion or political expediency. It does not depend on whether we like Bush or not. Only 47 years have passed, and nearly everyone involved remains alive. But the truth seems undiscoverable.

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Expert Error: Lew Wallace's March

Expert Error: Lew Wallace's March

It is the nature of historical research to give the greatest weight to matters with the greatest preponderance of evidence. Most accounts of Shiloh uncritically blame Wallace. There is a century and a half of documentary “proof” stacked against Wallace. History is about evidence, and even if the evidence is wrong, it is still the stuff history is made of.

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Logic

Logic

Logic is a formal thought process — a set of rules for how to think. An idea is logical if it passes the tests of the logical process. Even then, logic is a very limited aid to knowing. Logic is not a shortcut. Calling an idea “logical” does not make it true. Logic is also not a superpower. Anyone who declares, mysteriously, “Just believe me!” or “Trust me about this!” isn’t being logical and doesn’t deserve trust.

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Three Epistemological Successes

Epistemology is the search for justified true belief. Each of these three stories relates a time when a correct conclusion was drawn from available evidence and correct action followed. A little bit of math came in useful. But the main ingredient in all three cases was careful thought built upon clear definitions and consistent measurement. Those three elements — and not computers and software — are the essentials to knowing what’s true.

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